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Netflix: Great company, but an overpriced stock

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Dear Mr. Berko:

I just sold 300 shares of Wal-Mart and want your opinion on investing the proceeds in 50 shares of Netflix and 500 shares of Navios Maritime in a conservative, growth-oriented IRA account. The latter’s 8.3 percent dividend is an added gift. And by the way, thank you for your Atlas Pipeline recommendation, which I bought at $18 in October of last year.

K.L., Oklahoma City

Dear K.L.:

Netflix Inc. (NFLX-$242.18) is one of those many multibillion-dollar revenue businesses that don’t have to hire people. KKR, Priceline and Home Shopping Network, to name a few, generate three to 10 times more revenue per employee than Procter & Gamble, Wal-Mart or Kroger. This is the trend, my friend, because the good old times are coming to an end.

Netflix is the largest online entertainment subscription service in the universe, with more than 100,000 titles for rent. It has a subscriber base of 20 million who can rent eight movies at a time with no late fees or due dates using monthly plans that cost between $4.99 and $47.99, and nationwide centers provide next-day service for almost all subscribers.

Meanwhile, NFLX’s online movie streaming is gaining purchase quickly, and its impressive results should continue to prove a growth driver. The introduction of NFLX’s streaming service in Canada is also noteworthy. Assuming Canadian revenues continue strong, NFLX will consider other venues.

I like NFLX because its subscriber business should grow by 20 percent to 30 percent annually during the foreseeable future. I like NFLX because customers’ transition from DVD to streaming content will significantly reduce postage and packaging expenses and allow the company to purchase more digital content. I like NFLX because the Street believes revenues can double to $5 billion by 2015, because net profit margins can soon improve from 7 percent to 10 percent, because earnings can touch $9.50 per share, and because this company doesn’t need any more than 2,000 employees to meet the Street’s expectations by 2015.

Though I really like the company, I would stay miles away from the shares, because there’s no way that NFLX is worth $242, or 62 times expected 2011 earnings of $3.89 per share. At some point in the near future, NFLX’s torrid growth will slow, and that premium valuation will fall like hailstones in Kansas. Stay away.

Navios Maritime Partners LP (NMM-$20.64) is a master limited partnership that owns and operates a fleet of 12 vessels that deliver iron ore, coal, grains and fertilizers to most major discharge ports around the world. The dividend, which was recently raised to 43 cents per quarter, yields 8.3 percent and is about 90 percent nontaxable. NMM is home ported in Greece, run by Greeks, went public in 2007, has almost zero operating history and posted $80 million in revenues last year, which is about the gross-dollar volume of a Sam’s Club superstore.

These Greek-based MLPs are a drachma a dozen, but the Street seems to think that NMM may be a cut above the others, and the consensus suggests a share price of $25 in the next six to 12 months. NMM looks like a decent speculation. Go for 300 shares.

Please address your financial questions to Malcolm Berko, P.O. Box 1416, Boca Raton, Fla. 33429 or email him at malber@adelphia.net. ©2011 Creators.com

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