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Agriculture forecasters are putting a lot of faith in replanting.

It’s noteworthy, then, that a farmer told us the other day that he planted corn in the formerly flooded parts of his fields just to have something growing there other than weeds. If those spots produce a few ears, he said, that’s fine.

It’s one small snapshot of the enormous prediction problem looming over the food supply this year.

Clearly, the planted acreage figure has been reduced by flooding. And replanting in some cases has been too late to produce a strong yield. And we still have the usual risks ahead.

Roger Elmore, an Iowa State University professor of agronomy, was quoted in a June 27 release: “Corn planted this late has an early frost damage risk of around 40 percent in the southern part of the state and as high as 66 percent in the northern areas. An early frost could mean the difference between 130 bushels an acre and 24.”

As for soybeans, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last week that Iowa farmers intend to plant 9.4 million acres of beans, a 10 percent increase from last season, and should be able to harvest 8.95 million acres.

Curt Sindergard, president of the Iowa Soybean Association, said in a release, “The report seems to include the acres that have been replanted in ponds. It’s common to see three- and four-acre patches of replanting … but we can’t expect a full yield from those.”

He cautioned that yield will be affected by the “combination of late planting, flooding and cooler temperatures.”

Huge amounts of money are on the table in this guessing game, involving grain farmers, livestock producers, shippers, foreign governments and you. Corn and soybean prices started soaring before the spring rains even began, and a big drop in production could take all of us into uncharted territory.

A lot of talk lately has centered on oil speculators. The corn and soybean markets look ripe for some high-stakes gambling as well.