Profits soar, hiring doesn’t
’It was the best of times; it was the worst of times,” wrote Charles Dickens to begin “A Tale of Two Cities.” That line fairly captures the broader economic landscape as we near the finish of 2010. Let’s look at the numbers.
For the corporations that make up the Standard and Poor’s 500 index, 2010 will be outstanding indeed. On a collective per-share earnings basis, profits will come in at about $83.50 per share this year, just shy of the all-time high set in 2006. No question that the financial crisis of 2008 had an impact. Earnings for 2008 came in at $49.51 per share, collapsing 40 percent from the year before. But profits have come back strong since, posting a 15 percent gain in 2009 and a 47 percent projected gain in 2010.
The string of profit increases is stunning. Equally stunning has been the rebound in stock prices. From the 2007 peak to the 2009 bottom, the S&P 500 dropped 880 points; it has regained about 75 percent, an unprecedented comeback rally.
What makes the rebound in corporate profits and stock prices remarkable is the soft macroeconomic backdrop. The financial crisis stalled the nation’s economic engine in 2008 as the gross domestic product (GDP) flatlined that year, followed by a 2.6 percent contraction in 2009. The increase in GDP for 2010 won’t be much to write home about either – slightly north of 2 percent.
The Great Recession of 2008-2009 had a devastating effect on the national employment level. In January 2008 as the recession began, total nonfarm employment was nearly 138 million. In June 2009 when the recession officially ended, the total had shrunk to 130.6 million. At the end of October 2010 the total was 130.4 million. At the beginning of the recession, the employment-to-population ratio was 62.7 percent; at the end, it was 59.4 percent; and today it is 58.3 percent. This is the lowest ratio in 30 years.
The recovery and today’s corporate profits have come at the cost of jobs. Incredible productivity gains have resulted in lower unit labor costs, which has been the main driver for much of the domestic profit gains. In the third quarter of 2010, S&P 500 companies outside the financial sector had an 11 percent average profit margin, the best since 2005. As a percentage of GDP, corporate profits are about 12 percent, near their post-World War II peak of 13 percent.
Executives have been able to boost earnings through cost cutting, while posting slower – or even shrinking – revenue growth amid less consumer demand.
So 2010 is shaping up as an excellent year for U.S. corporations, but it does not set up the same for the folks who lost jobs in the wake of the financial crisis. The iconic story “A Christmas Carol” comes to mind. In it, Dickens offers a tale of hardship, redemption and hope. Not a bad theme for next year, with the hope that profits will soon lead to jobs.
Peter Percival (ppercival@syverson-strege.com) is a registered investment adviser at Syverson Strege & Co. in West Des Moines.