Remove market-value adjustment, and it’s been a good decade for stocks
Even with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index down 19 percent since the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000, it’s been no lost decade for stocks, Bloomberg reported.
The benchmark gauge for American equities climbed 66 percent from March 24, 2000, through Dec. 2, after stripping out adjustments for market value. As an example, that gives equal credit to Exxon Mobil Corp., whose shares are worth $382.5 billion, and Monster Worldwide Inc., at $945.6 million.
That’s little help for most investors, whose returns reflect the capitalization-weighted index, said Cliff Asness at AQR Capital Management LLC.
Gains in the S&P 500 Equal Weighted index through the dot-com tumble, the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the real estate collapse and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression show the resilience of U.S. companies that are forecast to report record earnings this year even as Europe’s debt crisis threatens growth again, Bloomberg said.
“Corporate America repaired itself,” said Chris Hyzy of U.S. Trust Co. “On an equal-weighted basis, it hasn’t been a lost decade.”
Companies in the S&P 500 are poised to report record earnings of $99.05 a share for 2011 and profits may rise 10 percent next year and 12 percent in 2013, based on analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
The decline in the S&P 100, whose companies have an average market capitalization of $73.9 billion, has reduced valuations to 35 percent below the mean of 18.6 since 1997, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The index trades at 12.1 times reported earnings, 7.6 percent lower than the S&P 500, the data show.
Smaller companies lifted the S&P 500 Equal Weighted index to a record on May 10, almost four years after the capitalization-based gauge reached its all-time high of 1,565.15 in October 2007.