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Revised holiday retail forecast a bit more cheery

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Looks like retailers might have a “green” Christmas after all.

According to a Bloomberg.com report, many of the country’s largest retailers, including Intel Corp. and TJX Cos. Inc., have raised their fourth-quarter sales estimates as it appears consumers’ “bunker mentality” could be giving way to normal spending patterns. Meanwhile, UBS Securities improved its forecast for third-quarter growth to 3.5 percent from 2.5 percent after September’s retail sales were higher than expected.

Retail sales excluding automobiles and restaurants could increase 1.5 percent in the 2009 holiday season, said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for market research firm NPD Group, in the Bloomberg report.

That would be a welcome turnaround from the 2008 holiday season, which had the worst sales drop in four decades, a 4.2 percent decline, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

The positive signs, including the Standard & Poor’s 500 retailing index rising 72 percent between March 9 and Oct. 16 and companies beating profit estimates, has caused the share price for some retailers, such as Pier 1 Imports Inc., to increase, according Bloomberg.

Cohen described “frugal fatigue” for consumers who might be tired of saving, which could lead to them opening their wallets. Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics Inc., said there is pent-up demand and a good chance for an upside surprise in holiday sales.