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Second stimulus package is not needed, economists say

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Survey results released today indicate that an increasing number of economists agree with the government’s response to the recession, saying they believe the economy is on the road to recovery, CNNMoney.com reported.

The majority of respondents, 76 percent, do not believe a second stimulus package is necessary, said the report from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

“This is almost certainly one of the fastest-moving and most controversial economic policy environments we have experienced in a generation,” said NABE President Chris Varvares.

Respondents expressed “an impressive degree of confidence in monetary policy,” but their views on budget policies are “more vexing,” Varvares added. The semiannual survey includes responses from a panel of 266 economists.

The number of economists reporting that fiscal policy is “about right” rose to 35 percent, up from 22 percent in March and the highest level since March 2008.

But 50 percent of those surveyed said fiscal policy is still too stimulus-focused, up from 33 percent in March. Three-quarters said they would like to see more restriction over the next two years, but only 28 percent expect that to happen. In fact, almost 42 percent of economists said they expect fiscal policy to become even more stimulus-oriented.

About 20 percent said the stimulus actually reduced growth during the past quarter.

About half of respondents said stimulus will add between 0.5 and 1.5 percentage points to gross domestic product growth in the second half of 2009. About a third said it would add less than 0.5 percentage point. GDP is the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity.

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