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Soybean acreage could exceed corn for first time

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Farmers are expected to plant record amounts of soybeans this season in response to the declining demand for corn, Bloomberg reported, which means that soybean acres may exceed corn for the first time ever.

“This recession is going to last a lot longer than the one in the 1970s,” hurting demand for raw materials, said Commodity Information Systems President Bill Gary, who has been trading grain since 1961. “I don’t see any major bull move in commodities in the next several years.”

According to a University of Illinois study, soybeans will cost about 32 percent less to grow than corn this planting season. Bloomberg analysts expect farmers to plant soybeans on 79.11 million acres, up from 75.72 million last year, a 4.5 percent increase year-over-year. Corn acreage is expected to decrease 1.5 percent.

As a result of the increase in soybean acreage, Gary believes the cash price of soybeans will decrease by 28 percent this season to below $6.50 a bushel, while corn will experience a 31 percent decrease to less than $2.50 a bushel.

Additionally, it is expected that farm income will decline by 20 percent to $71.2 billion from $89.3 billion in 2008.

“Farm income has to come down,” said Michael Swanson, a senior agricultural economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. “We don’t need any more wheat, soybeans or cotton, and corn supplies should be adequate with the drop in demand.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its first official projection of spring plantings tomorrow. The projection is based on surveys that were completed by about 86,000 producers from Feb. 27 through March 16. A second survey, which will be released in June, will show what farmers actually planted.

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