Low interest rates could spur multiyear bull market
The global recovery in stock markets will stretch into 2010 as people try to make more money than they can from cash and government bonds, according to the investment chief of Scotland’s largest money manager.
“There is a wall of cash out there seeking income-earning assets,” Anne Richards, who oversees 129 billion pounds ($207 billion) at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc, , said in a Bloomberg interview at the company’s offices in Edinburgh. “That wall of money will be supportive into next year.”
Anthony Bolton, president of investments at Fidelity International, holds a similar view. In a separate Bloomberg interview, he said sustainable economic growth and low interest rates worldwide will spur a “multiyear” bull market in equities, led by developing nations.
“Low growth means low interest rates, and actually that’s one of the best environments for stock-market investing,” said Bolton, who oversees a portfolio of about $141 billion. “Anything that can show growth in this low-growth environment is going to be bid up by investors. It’s very pro the emerging-market world versus the developed world.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index has staged the biggest rally since the Great Depression, soaring more than 50 percent from a March low as economies around the world emerge from recession. The FTSE 100 index in the United Kingdom and Germany’s DAX index recorded similar gains, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced more than 80 percent.
American investors hold $3.5 trillion in cash, a higher proportion of the net assets of the companies in the S&P 500 index than at the peak of the market in 2007, according to data compiled by the Investment Company Institute in Washington and Bloomberg as of Sept. 28.
At the same time, interest rates worldwide are at or near record lows. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate in December to between zero and 0.25 percent. The Bank of England trimmed its benchmark cost of borrowing to 0.5 percent from 5 percent between September and March. The yield on two-year U.K. government notes has held below 1 percent since Aug. 12 and is at its lowest since 1992.