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More than 100 U.S. banks have been closed by regulators in 2009, but Iowa’s banking system has held up relatively well. When Vantus Bank of Sioux City closed in September, however, it reminded us that trends start at the coasts and head in our direction.

Could there be some serious banking woes on the horizon for Central Iowa? Bankers Trust Co. President Suku Radia was asked recently about the impact here if some local banks go the way of Vantus.

Radia, who spoke at the 2009 Financial Executives International/Drake University School of Accounting Lecture, said it was likely that “five or six” Central Iowa banks will be sold or closed in the next 15 months.

Many banks “would love to come into this area,” he told an audience of Drake students and others. “Well-capitalized banks would love to get their hands on these small banks – but most banks need to conserve assets for organic growth.”

Asked later, Radia said Bankers Trust has been approached by a half-dozen banks looking for a buyer.

Why? Because they are experiencing “serious stress,” Radia said. Economic uncertainty just adds to that stress.

“We don’t have a really good sense of the depth of the downturn,” Radia said. “We probably need to have some dry powder as we work our way through it.”

Although he anticipates changes in the Central Iowa banking landscape, Radia doesn’t expect traumatic effects.

“Based on what I know about the organizations under stress, it’s not going to be big enough to be a shock to the system,” he said. “Each bank is on a different life cycle, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see everything change hands or shut down at the same time.”

The best outcome would be for an economic rebound in Central Iowa that lets us avoid bank failures altogether.

But we certainly have no shortage of banking companies, and a few takeovers won’t do any long-term damage.