Where’s Chicken Little?
Will the sky fall on Aug. 2 if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling?
Not likely, according to analysts interviewed by Reuters. They say that even without the ability to borrow more money, the government could avoid a devastating default for another week or so.
For weeks, President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner have stressed that the U.S. Treasury Department will run out of authority to borrow funds on Aug. 2 and have warned of dire consequences if Congress does not raise the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling in time.
The consensus among Wall Street analysts is that the cash won’t run out until about two weeks after the August debt-ceiling drop-dead date, Reuters said.
“The first risk of a legitimate default is Aug. 15,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist and managing director at Jefferies & Co. “Cash is not going to be an immediate problem. The debt ceiling space is not going to be an immediate problem.”
McCarthy and other Wall Street analysts predict that the Treasury Department will have enough cash to meet its early- to mid-August obligations, including $23 billion in Social Security payments to the elderly and disabled on August 3.
Analysts also expect that the Treasury will be able to roll over the $90 billion in U.S. debt that matures Aug. 4.
“In all forecasts, it appears as if they have ample cash to cover their obligations,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist with research firm Wrightson ICAP.
A Treasury spokesperson on Tuesday had no comment, Reuters said.