In an up-and-down economy, the flurry of minute-by-minute economic reports can make it difficult to see the big picture. We decided to take a breath and collect some of the key data that has popped up on our screens to provide a view of Iowa’s and Greater Des Moines’ economic performance, and offer a snapshot of where Iowa’s business leaders see it headed in 2012.

Iowa Business Council Economic Outlook

Each quarter, the Iowa Business Council surveys its members to gauge how they view the direction of Iowa’s economy for the coming six months. Here’s the latest snapshot of how the CEOs of 19 of the state’s largest businesses answered. The weighted averages of the quarterly responses are used to create an Outlook Survey Index (OSI), which on a 100-point scale measures the executives’ level of optimism for the state’s six-month economic outlook. An index greater than 50 indicates positive sentiment; below 50 is negative sentiment. The latest OSI from the fourth quarter of 2011 – 62 – was an improvement from the third quarter but still lower than a year ago.

How do you feel sales, capital spending and employment in Iowa will change in the next six months?(percentages – 3rd quarter/4th quarter 2011)

Iowa’s manufacturing sector continues to outpace region

For the second time in the past three months, the Business Conditions Index for the nine-state, Mid-America region did not move above growth-neutral 50. The index, a leading economic indicator from a monthly survey of supply managers, continues to point to slow to no growth for the region for the next three to six months. The index is a mathematical average of indexes for new orders, production or sales, employment, inventories and delivery lead time.

“While the reading is well above recessionary values for 2008 and early 2009, our surveys over the past several months indicate that slowdowns in the national and global economies are putting downward pressure on the regional economy,” Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and holder of the school’s Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics, said when the index was released in early January.

Iowa’s Business Conditions Index recorded its 24th consecutive month of growth (index reading higher than 50), reflecting a stronger economy than the region as a whole. “Manufacturers in Iowa had a very good 2011 as they added to their payrolls,” Goss said. “While the U.S. dollar and a weaker global economy will be a challenge, the state’s economy will perform well in the first half of 2012.”

Des Moines market among ‘improving’ metros

The Greater Des Moines housing market ended 2011 on a high note, with 642 homes sold in December, a 13 percent increase from December 2010. “Ending the year with these numbers is a good indication that we should start the year off strong,” said Ken Clark, president of the Des Moines Area Association of Realtors. The Des Moines metropolitan area was recently added to the National Association of Home Builders’ list of improving housing markets, which identifies metropolitan areas that have shown improvement in housing permits, employment and home prices for at least six consecutive months.

Metro area’s hiring outlook second-strongest in nation

Greater Des Moines employers expect to hire at a steady pace during the first quarter of 2012, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released in December. Of those companies surveyed, 20 percent said they plan to hire, while 6 percent expect to reduce their staffs. The Des Moines-West Des Moines metropolitan area’s 14 percent net employment outlook figure was significantly improved from a net 2 percent employment outlook a year ago. “Des Moines-West Des Moines was actually the second-strongest in the nation in terms of net employment outlook, so that’s really exciting,” said Karen Miller, executive vice president for ManpowerGroup’s Central Iowa office. The top net employment outlook in the nation was Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla., at 17 percent. Locally, ManpowerGroup surveys at least 140 employers as part of the nationwide survey of more than 18,000 companies.

Manpower Employment Outlook  (first quarter 2012)

In the first quarter of 2012, do you expect to increase, maintain or decrease staffing levels?