Economists predict increase in household spending
Household spending may be about to pick up after stagnating for three straight months as employment and incomes climb and the weather turns more seasonable, giving the U.S. economy a lift, Bloomberg said.
“The situation for consumers has improved significantly over the last several months,” said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Group in New York. “Spending is bound to accelerate, the most important driver being improvement in the labor market.”
Employers boosted payrolls in February, capping the best six-month streak of job growth since 2006, according to Labor Department data released last week. Consumer spending on utilities will probably return to normal after dropping from November through January because of unseasonably warm weather.
“Given the labor market and some of these weather factors, there is reason to be optimistic,” said Troy Davig, a senior economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “The warm weather has held down consumer spending, basically because of the direct impact of households purchasing less energy to heat their homes. That’s generally positive for the consumer, but the immediate impact has depressed consumption.”
Analysts at Barclays Capital, led by chief U.S. economist Dean Maki, project that consumer spending will climb at a 3 percent annual rate in the second half of the year after expanding at a 2.5 percent pace in the first six months.
Investors have driven up retailers’ shares as the job market heals. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Retailing index, which includes Gap Inc. and Macy’s Inc., has climbed 14 percent this year through March 9, compared with a 9 percent advance for the broader S&P 500.
Household purchases in the U.S. were little changed for a third month in January after adjusting for inflation, Commerce Department figures showed on March 1. Part of the reason was that spending on housing and utilities dropped by $20.7 billion at an annual rate over the period, canceling out a $21.4 billion increase in sales of automobiles and parts.