Dear Mr. Berko:

I’m president of a 22-member investment club, and we have four questions for you: 1. Do you think the war in Iraq would have been avoided if the first President Bush had gone all the way to Baghdad and taken out Saddam Hussein in 1991? 2. Do you think this war will be over soon after the presidential election, and if so, what do you think the Dow Jones will do in 2005? 3. Would it be fair of us to ask for whom you voted? 4. What do you think of a stock called True Religion Apparel?

Our club gets all sorts of unsolicited mailings with requests that we buy this and that investment service. This stock was discussed in one of those mailings and looked pretty good. We could buy 2,000 shares if you recommend it.

E.R. Fort Walton Beach, Fla.

Dear E.R.:

Some observers might suggest that 41 was more mature, wiser, infinitely more experienced and certainly more cerebral than 43. The answer to your question is “No!” The first Bush stopped far south of Baghdad because he knew he did not have a reasonable exit strategy. According to a friend of mine, a CIA retiree, the first Bush believed that Iraq had the potential to be another Vietnam and advised 43 not to invade.

I doubt the conflict will be over any time soon after the election. War is good for business: Companies that make clothing, boots, tents, weapons, explosives, telecommunications equipment, food and kitchen equipment, medical equipment, blankets, armored vehicles, rockets, etc., employ hundreds of thousands of Americans and earn billions of dollars.

Many observers believe the “war” was a political solution to an economic problem and prevented the United States from entering a recession. If hostilities in Iraq are ended, unemployment could exceed 6 percent, gross domestic product could fall significantly and the United States might enter into recession. So, whoever is president when this thing ends might have a nasty economic mess on his hands.

I can’t, with any degree of certainty, predict what the Dow will do in 2005. However, I can tell you with a fair degree of certainty — it’s historical fact — that the Dow performs much better when a Democrat is in the White House.

Yes, it’s fair to ask me for whom I cast my vote, and as a modestly intelligent man, it’s also fair that I don’t answer that question.

No matter which party is elected, the winning party only represents 1 percent of the American public. Big business, the wealthy and special interests influence policy in this country, not voters like you or me. Do you think it’s “the people” who attend $15,000-a-plate dinners or write $50,000 checks to their political party? And don’t for a moment think that these folks give that kind of money out of the goodness of their hearts. When their candidate is elected, he or she is expected to deliver.

Now let’s get back to the stock market. True Religion Apparel Inc. (TRLG-$3.05) is a cruddy operation that commenced commerce as a public company in July 2003 selling campy, cute cutoffs, jeans, skirts and jackets to the racy pubescent and adolescent markets. TRLG sells attractive stuff using a catchy label and sexy marketing appeal. A pair of TRLG-labeled jeans retails for $200. However, my daughter Hilary tells me that she buys similar quality, fit and style at Steinmart or Marshalls for $25 or less.

Neither Standard & Poor’s nor Morningstar nor any major or minor brokerage firms have a shred of data on TRLG. But I can you tell that TRLG went public at 90 cents in July 2003, and for the first six months of 2004, it posted $6.7 million in revenues. TLRG lists its major clients as Bloomingdale’s, Barney’s of New York, Nordstrom and Saks. TRLG also brags, or I should say that the unsolicited mailing you received brags, that the company does an exploding business in Japan, Germany, Switzerland, Holland, Australia, the United Kingdom (Harrods, Selfridges, Harvey Nichols) and Canada.

The complimentary magazine that was mass-mailed to you by Ian Wyatt, billed as “America’s top growth stock expert,” touts this stock with aggressive glee. Wyatt is a cherubic, chubby mass-marketing genius who also sells tapes, courses, books, investment strategies, compact discs and other materials on how to make big money in the stock market.

Frankly, making big money in the stock market is as easy as roasting marshmallows. Buy 500,000 shares of a cheap stock in September and send an attractively packaged mass mailing in October to hundreds of thousands of people and recommend the stock. While they are buying the stock, your broker is selling it to them from your inventory.

Please address your financial questions to Malcolm Berko, P.O. Box 1416, Boca Raton, Fla. 33429 or e-mail him at malber@adelphia.net.