Everybody has an opinion about Americafs economic prospects. But some opinions count more than others, and a man who studies these things in depth had mostly encouraging views to offer last week. Randy Mundt, the president and chief investment officer of Principal Real Estate Investors, spoke at the ninth annual Iowa Commercial Real Estate Expo and turned in his usual impressive performance.

Are there imbalances in the economy? Oh yeah, Mundt said, there sure are. Perhaps too many people, having given up on the stock market, are throwing money at real estate. Homeowners are finding it too easy to get home equity loans to finance their spending sprees. Foreigners own an awful lot of our debt.

Worse, the intertwining of the various imbalances could cause a domino effect of one crisis leading to another.

But imbalances tend to self-correct, Mundt said, and for the most part, “we believe the corrections will be gradual and moderate.”

Some of Mundt’s points:

1. Consumer spending, which has carried the economy in recent years, will slow down. However, businesses are poised to pick up the slack. gWefre counting on businesses spending more,h he said. “They’re sitting on huge amounts of cash.”

2. The federal budget deficit is certain to increase. “The federal government is definitely going to turn on the spending machine” in response to the hurricane disasters, Mundt said, possibly adding as much as $200 billion to the deficit. However, “that’s actually good for the economy,” he said. “That will be another offset to the slowdown in consumer spending.”

3. Foreign investors, especially those in China, have invested heavily in Treasury securities, and a decision to pull out of that market would be disruptive to our national economy. But “we don’t think they’re going to do that,” Mundt said. “If they hurt the bond market, they’re hurting themselves.”

4. Total real estate returns during the next few years will be lower than in recent years, probably between 7 and 8.5 percent. “I donft think that’s bad news,” he said. Keeping the industry realistic is a good way to get ready as the Baby Boomers search for nice, stable retirement investments. “Our industry’s golden age will be over the next 10 to 20 years,” Mundt said.

“The U.S. economy is very flexible and resilient,” he said. “We’ll probably have a soft landing in most of the corrections.”

Nice to hear that from a guy who seems to know what he’s talking about.