Flood damage estimates should not be considered as definitive, as many projected numbers are premature and could change with time, Iowa State University’s Regional Capacity Analysis Program (ReCAP) said in a release.

According to “Economic Impacts of the 2008 Floods in Iowa,” put out by ReCAP, “evaluating the impact of a natural disaster on a local or state economy requires different words and methods than might be used by homeowners, local merchants, insurance claims adjustors or members of the news media in describing the same event.”

Until official reports are released, economists can only estimate losses, and ReCAP noted that economic impact figures may overstate the effects on businesses and understate the effects on households.

“It’s easier to get numbers for businesses because they have those types of records,” said Liesl Eathington, director of ReCAP and lead author of the report. “They’re more likely to keep track of what they had and what they lost. It’s much harder to get numbers for households. And in a lot of cases, there’s no point in even tallying the household losses, because they’re not going to be compensated.”

In regard to calculating total economic loss for local businesses, economists will have to evaluate lost inventory, lost sales, and lost productivity and profits, the report said. ReCAP suspects that there will be many business failures and job losses, especially because the economy is already experiencing a national slowdown. Even firms not directly affected by flooding might lose sales if they supplied of goods and services to affected businesses or households.

“I would think by next year, when you start looking at business in these towns that were flooded, you’re going to start seeing decline,” said Meghan O’Brien, a ReCAP economist who specializes in retail business. However, “it’s something that will play out over the years. I don’t know that you’ll have a firm grasp on actual business loss for a while.”

The ReCAP staff plans to continue analyzing the economic impacts of the 2008 floods as data become available.