Purchases of new houses in the United States probably rose in March from a record low, economists told Bloomberg in advance of the release later today of government housing data.

New-home sales, tabulated when contracts are signed, climbed 12 percent to a 280,000 annual pace last month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 64 economists. Purchases slumped 17 percent in February to a 250,000 annual rate, the weakest in data going back to 1963.

“A housing recovery is going to be slow,” said Michael Gapen, a senior U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. “I see light at the end of the tunnel, but I see a lot more tunnel. We still have tight credit conditions, and we need plain, outright job growth to spur demand.”

The market for new homes faces competition from a glut of foreclosed properties that may keep prices depressed through the year, Bloomberg said. Housing’s struggles help explain why the Federal Reserve may announce at the conclusion of this week’s policy meeting that it plans to complete the purchase of $600 billion of U.S. Treasury securities by June.

Purchases of previously owned homes climbed 3.7 percent to a 5.1 million annual rate in March as properties in or near foreclosure lured investors, according to an April 20 report from the National Association of Realtors. All-cash deals accounted for 35 percent of the transactions, the most on record, while distressed properties, including foreclosures and short sales, made up 40 percent of all deals, the group said.