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An Asian nation with an economy at 60 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product and nothing but blue skies ahead – that was Japan in the 1980s. Now Japan’s GDP is one-third the size of ours, and we really don’t worry about the place much anymore.

These days, China stands at 60 percent of our GDP, and it looks like a boom that won’t quit. When we assume it’s destined become the world’s most successful nation any second now, is it possible that we’re incorrect again?

Drake University professor David Skidmore addressed that question at an Iowa Council for International Understanding noontime gathering last week. The short answer: China is on a heck of a run, but the United States isn’t headed for the bench anytime soon.

Skidmore is a professor in the department of politics and international relations, writes often about China, has taught in China and will spend the 2010-11 academic year on a Fulbright Fellowship at the University of Hong Kong.

So even though he professed to be nervous offering his opinions to an audience that included his opposite, Peiqin Zhou – a Fulbright scholar visiting here from China – Skidmore has a great deal of expertise on this issue.

There are different ways to evaluate a nation’s status, Skidmore noted. First, the economic method:

• If recent trends continue, China’s GDP could match America’s in 2035 or thereabouts; but when you calculate the “per-capita GDP,” our number would still be four to five times larger than China’s.

• Sometimes a nation hits a “demographic sweet spot” when most of the population is working and relatively few are just sitting at home expecting to be taken care of. That’s where China is right now. Its policy of allowing only one child per family will change the picture in the coming decades, and “by 2050, 30 percent of the population will be working, and 70 percent will be dependent,” Skidmore said. That should slow the economy down considerably.

• It’s easy to fuel an economic run when you draw down your natural resources without worrying about the consequences. Ah, those were the days. However, “environmental damage eventually has economic effects,” Skidmore said.

Then there’s the military method of evaluating who’s No. 1. Not much threat of anybody taking away our lead in aircraft carrier groups, in Skidmore’s opinion. But as we’ve been learning repeatedly for the past 40 years, there are ways to fight that don’t involve large, expensive weapons systems.

China doesn’t really want to pour a lot of money into armaments, Skidmore said. “They saw the arms race help bankrupt the Soviet Union.”

Instead, the Chinese are investing in “niche capabilities matched against our weaknesses.” For one thing, they’re interested in cyber warfare – large-scale computer hacking.

Better that than spotting incoming missiles on our radar screens, right? But still not exactly comforting. You know how frustrating computer problems can be; now multiply that times power outages and crashing airliners.

Skidmore also explored the topic of “soft power.” This is the international equivalent of finding your next date. China scores high with “Confucian appeal” and its respect for the sovereignty of other countries. Its authoritarian approach to government, however, is not likely to make too many people say, “Wow, if only we could be more like that.”

In the political realm, China does know how to tackle big issues and get something accomplished. Over there, Skidmore noted, high-speed rail is happening in a big way. Over here, it takes a long, long time to get agreement on anything.

The bottom line: The United States shouldn’t feel unduly threatened. In the question-and-answer session, a native of China added a personal touch to that thought.

My parents remember the times when they hardly had enough to eat, she said. It’s not a question of ideology for the ordinary people of China. They just don’t want to go back to the bad old days.