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Henry Fund expects lower unemployment, single-digit market growth

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The Henry Fund research team at the University of Iowa expects generally favorable economic conditions in the United States the next couple of years.

The Henry Fund is a $2.8 million fund managed by finance students in the Henry B. Tippie College of Business Master of Business Administration program. Here are some highlights of the report written by MBA candidates Kapil Dhingra and Michael Kelleher:

  • U.S. growth over the next six months should be 3.4 percent.
  • A lagging global economy will mute gains, with real gross domestic product growth of 3.2 percent by 2017.
  • Inflation is expected to flatten, in part due to low oil prices, but should return to 2 percent over a two-year period.
  • The national unemployment rate should hit 5.4 percent in the next six months before settling in at 5.3 percent over the next two years. Job losses and layoffs related to the energy sector should be offset by hiring in the information technology, consumer discretionary, materials and telecommunications sectors.
  • Oil prices will remain relatively stable for the next six months, rebounding to $75 per barrel by 2017.
  • U.S. households have saved $1,000 in energy costs on an annual basis, but appear to be paying down debt and saving rather than spending it on discretionary items.
  • The economy should mirror U.S. growth within two years, with the euro rebounding a bit.
  • Expect low single-digit growth in the stock market over the next two years while corporate earnings catch up with valuation levels.

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