The Iowa Leading Indicators Index decreased to 109.1 in February from 109.2 in January, the Iowa Department of Revenue reported.

The six-month annualized change in the index held at -0.7 percent from January. Although the month was the third consecutive negative value, the measure is far from the -2.0 percent change that signals a recession, the agency said.

The negative signals so far in 2015 reflect in part the relative strength seen last year in average manufacturing hours, diesel fuel consumption and the agricultural future profits index (AFPI). So far, growth in these three areas is not matching the pace of growth in 2014. However, manufacturing hours are still well above historical values and diesel consumption continues to grow, just at a slower pace.

The two largest positive contributors in February were the Iowa stock market index and new residential building permits. Negative contributors to the Iowa Leading Indicators Index in February were the AFPI, average weekly manufacturing hours and diesel fuel consumption, and the new orders index.

The new orders index, which measures future manufacturing demand, decreased from 53.3 in January to 49.2 in February, after two months of increases. This is the fourth time in the last six months where the index was below 50. The recorded 49.2 value fell well short of the 66.5 value seen one year ago.

The new orders index has been a negative contributor to the index every month since December 2013. Ernie Goss of Creighton University’s Heider College of Business, who compiles the new orders index, observed that durable goods producers, including agriculture machinery and metal manufacturers, continue to suffer pullbacks in jobs and economic activity for the month.

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