The Iowa Leading Indicators Index increased to 105.8 in October from 105.4 in September.

When seen together, a six-month annualized change in the index below -2.0% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0 are considered a signal of a coming contraction.

During the six-month span through October, the index increased 0.9%, an annualized rate of 1.7%. October is the eighth month the six-month annualized change was above contractionary signals.

The six-month diffusion index increased to 68.8 in October from 50.0 in September, which means this metric also remained above contractionary signals.

The monthly diffusion index remained unchanged at 62.5 in October from September. A diffusion index measures the proportion of components rising in a given time period. Components are assigned values based on how they increased or decreased over the time period and the assigned values for all the components are then added together.

The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.02% increase in October.

Five of the eight components increased month over month in October: The national yield spread, the Iowa Stock Market Index, residential building permits, average weekly manufacturing hours and the new orders index. Diesel fuel consumption, average weekly unemployment claims and the agricultural futures profit index were the three components that detracted from the index.

Throughout October, the yield spread remained in inversion territory (below 0) at -0.62%, up from -1.20% in September. October is the 24th month in a row that the yield spread has been in inversion. The long-term rate increased 38 basis points, while the short-term rate decreased by 20 basis points.

During October, 17 of the 27 Iowa-based or Iowa-concentrated publicly traded companies and six of the nine financial-sector companies increased. With nearly two-thirds of the stocks experiencing gains, the stock market index increased to 141.57 in October from 133.77 in September.

Residential building permits were 1,210 in October, up from 912 last year. The 12-month moving average increased to 971 in October from 946 in September. October 2024 permits were 32.9% above October 2023, yet 5.8% below the monthly historical average.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly manufacturing hours increased to 40.55 in October from 40.47 in September. In October, average hours were 41.0, a half hour below the historical monthly average.

The new orders index in October increased to 52.9 from 40.0 in September. The 12-month moving average of the new orders index increased to 48.9 from 48.4 in September.

During October, the agricultural futures profit index showed profit decreases in both crop commodities and expected profit increases in both livestock commodities. Compared to last year, new crop corn prices were 14.8% lower, while soybean prices were 21.9% lower. The October crush margin for cattle increased 1.2% from September, while the crush margin for hogs increased 3.3% from September. The crush margin involves the market value of the animal minus its initial cost and the cost of feeding it.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly unemployment claims increased from 2,535 in September to 2,549 in October. Unemployment claims were 8.7% above October 2023 claims, yet 30.8% below average historical claims for October.

Diesel fuel consumption decreased 6.5% between October 2023 and October 2024. The 12-month moving average decreased to 65.04 million gallons in October from 65.41 million in September.

The full report is available online.