The Iowa Leading Indicators Index decreased 0.2% to 106.8 in March from 107.0 in February.

When seen together, a six-month annualized change in the index below -2.0% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0 are considered a signal of a coming contraction.

During the six-month span through March 2025, the index increased 1.3%, an annualized rate of 2.6%, remaining above contractionary signals.

The six-month diffusion index remained unchanged at 62.5 in March, which is the fourth month in a row it has been the same. This measure also remained above contractionary signals.

The monthly diffusion index decreased to 50.0 in March from 62.5 in February. A diffusion index measures the proportion of components rising in a given time period. Components are assigned values based on how they increased or decreased over the time period and the assigned values for all the components are then added together.

The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.07% decrease in March. The index has experienced decreases in six of the last eight months.

Four of the eight components increased month over month in March 2025: residential building permits, average weekly manufacturing hours, the new orders index and the agricultural futures profit index. Diesel fuel consumption, the Iowa Stock Market Index, the national yield spread and average weekly unemployment claims detracted from the index.

In March, residential building permits were 1,273, up from 917 in March 2024. The 12-month moving average increased to 1,069 in March from 1,039 in February. March 2025 permits were 38.8% above March 2024 and 20.1% above the monthly historical average.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly manufacturing hours increased to 41.07 in March from a revised 40.99 in February. In March, average hours were 41.0, almost a quarter hour above the historical monthly average. The 12-month moving average is the average of an indicator over the last 12 months. Moving averages smooth data to remove noise or seasonality.

The new orders index in March increased to 55.9 from 48.1 in February. The 12-month moving average of the new orders index also increased to 49.0 from 48.4 in February.

During March 2025, the agricultural futures profit index showed expected profit decreases in both crop commodities and cattle. Hogs were the only commodity to show an expected profit increase. Compared to last year, new crop corn prices were 4.2% lower while soybean prices were 13.8% lower. The March crush margin for cattle decreased 9.9% from February while the crush margin for hogs increased 2.7% from February.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly unemployment claims increased from 2,591 in February to 2,600 in March. Unemployment claims were 5.2% above March 2024 claims, yet 49.6% below average historical claims for March.

The yield spread returned to inversion territory (below 0.00%), down from 0.12% in February to -0.06% in March. March was the first month since November 2024 that the yield spread was inverted. The long-term rate decreased 17 basis points while the short-term rate increased by 1 basis point.

During March, five of the 27 Iowa-based or Iowa-concentrated publicly traded companies gained value, and one of the nine financial-sector companies increased in value. With nearly all of the stocks experiencing losses, the stock market index decreased to 155.22 in March from 163.24 in February.

Diesel fuel consumption decreased 17.3% between March 2024 and March 2025. The 12-month moving average decreased to 65.09 million gallons in March from 65.99 million gallons in February.

The full report is available online.