The Iowa Leading Indicators Index was 106.3 in December 2024, remaining the same from November 2024.

When seen together, a six-month annualized change in the index below -2.0% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0 are considered a signal of a coming contraction.

During the six-month span through December, the index increased 1.7%, an annualized rate of 3.3%. December is the 10th month the six-month annualized change has been above contractionary signals.

The six-month diffusion index decreased to 62.5 in December from 75.0 in November, remaining above contractionary signals as well.

The monthly diffusion index decreased to 37.5 in December from 75.0 in November. A diffusion index measures the proportion of components rising in a given time period. Components are assigned values based on how they increased or decreased over the time period and the assigned values for all the components are then added together.

The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.03% increase in December.

Three of the eight components increased month over month in December: the national yield spread, average weekly manufacturing hours and diesel fuel consumption. The agricultural futures profit index, residential building permits, average weekly unemployment claims, the new orders index, and the Iowa Stock Market Index detracted from the index.

The yield spread was 0% in December, up from -0.26% in November. December was the first month after 25 months in a row that the yield spread was not inverted. The long-term rate increased 3 basis points while the short-term rate decreased by 23 basis points.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly manufacturing hours increased to 40.68 in December from 40.62 in November. In December, average hours were 41.5, just above the historical monthly average.

Diesel fuel consumption increased 2.6% between December 2023 and December 2024. The 12-month moving average increased to 65.26 million gallons in December from 65.12 million in November.

During December, eight of the 27 Iowa-based or Iowa-concentrated publicly traded companies gained value, and only one of the nine financial-sector companies increased in value. With over two-thirds of the stocks experiencing losses, the stock market index decreased to 153.55 in December from 154.12 in November.

The new orders index in December decreased to 44.3 from 45.6 in November. The 12-month moving average of the new orders index has decreased to 48.7 from 48.8 in November.

The 12-month moving average of average weekly unemployment claims rose from 2,561 to 2,609. Unemployment claims were 11.5% above December 2023 claims, yet 15.9% below average historical claims for December.

In December, residential building permits were 651, down from 860 in December 2023. The 12-month moving average decreased to 998 in December from 1,015 in November. December 2024 permits were 24.3% below December 2023, and 7.1% below the monthly historical average.

The agricultural futures profit index showed expected profit decreases in both crop commodities and livestock commodities in December. Compared with 2023, new crop corn prices were 10.3% lower while soybean prices were 21.3% lower. The December crush margin for cattle decreased 21.0% from November while the crush margin for hogs decreased 5.2% from November.

The full report is available online.