Though a survey by the National Association for Business Economics reported that more than 80 percent of economists believe the nation’s recession is over, an Iowa State University economist isn’t expecting a quick recovery in Iowa anytime soon.

The state budget shortfall is one example of how Iowa is lagging behind, said ISU economist Liesl Eathington.

“What’s happening with the state’s revenues isn’t really much different than what many businesses have experienced, where they didn’t necessarily feel the crack of the housing bubble or the Wall Street meltdown,” she said in a release. “They weren’t directly impacted by some of those early declines in consumer spending.

“Many of the things we produce in the state are farther back in the supply chain, so we’re starting to really feel the hit now from the one that was taken by the firms that buy what we make. And now until household and business spending starts to pick up again and those first-line industries start to respond, then they’re not going to demand the things that we (Iowa) make. So again, we’ll probably see kind of a lag.”

Eathington said she doesn’t know if the state’s unemployment levels have peaked yet, despite September statistics showing Iowa’s unemployment levels were stable at 6.7 percent.

Eathington, who serves on Gov. Chet Culver’s Council of Economic Advisors, said employment usually lags behind other economic indicators, and that she wouldn’t expect the state to recover to 2007 employment levels for at least two more years.

And maybe more.

Eathington said that after the last recession in 2001, Iowa didn’t recover to pre-recession levels until 2005.

“I think the sooner we come to terms with the fact that we are in for a fairly protracted period of economic stress for households and fiscal stress for the state, the better off we’re going to be in terms of decision making,” Eathington said. “Because it’s not just going to turn around.”