Looking like a ‘V-shaped’ recovery
Surging profits are prompting economists to revise their estimates for growth, tilting the recovery more in the direction of a V shape as businesses from Intel Corp. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. boost spending, Bloomberg reported.
“Companies have a lot more capital, and they’re going to deploy it for equipment and hiring rather than sit on it, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist in New York at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. “It’s quite possible the economy produces a recovery significantly stronger than people anticipate.”
The U.S. Economy will grow 4 percent this year, he said. Though that’s slower than the V-shaped recovery in 1984, when the economy expanded 7.2 percent after the 1981-82 recession, it’s faster than the 3 percent median estimate of 59 economists surveyed in April by Bloomberg News.
Barclays Capital, a unit of London-based Barclays plc, raised its forecast for growth this year to 3.8 percent from 3.5 percent on April 16, while UBS Securities, a unit of UBS AG in Zurich, increased its prediction to 3.3 percent from 3 percent on April 9. The economy contracted 2.4 percent in 2009.
Intel, the world’s biggest chipmaker, said on April 13 that it had lifted its projection for outlays on research, development, mergers and acquisitions this year by $600 million to about $12.4 billion. JPMorgan Chase, the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, plans to hire almost 9,000 employees in America.
The odds that the United States will relapse into recession have fallen to 15 percent from 25 percent at the start of year, thanks in part to rising profits, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.