The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a monthly economic indicator produced using surveys of supply managers in nine states, fell to 51.4 in March from February’s reading of 57. The drop points to expectations for slowed but positive economic growth over the next three to six months.

Iowa’s Business Conditions Index also declined for March to 51.6 from February’s reading of 52.6. Components of the index from the monthly survey were new orders at 60.5, production or sales at 42.0, delivery lead time at 54.2, employment at 52.7 and inventories at 48.6.

“Iowa’s dependence on international trade and exports is less than that of the nation, but greater than the rest of the region,” Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics in the Heider College of Business, said in a statement. “However, Iowa’s export growth since 2009 has significantly exceeded that of the U.S. and the region. Thus, the rising value of the U.S. dollar, making U.S. goods less competitively priced abroad, represents more of an economic challenge for Iowa’s growth going forward than for the region and nation.”

At the regional level, nondurable manufacturers, including food processors and ethanol producers, have reported weakening sales and production over the past several months, leading to the drop in March’s numbers, according to Goss.  

The new orders index was at 60.2 in March, up from 57.1 in February, but the production or sales index plunged to 41.8 from 63.8 in February. The employment reading improved in March, moving to 52.5 from 50.8, but the business confidence index dropped to 55.7 from 58.4.