Midwest rural economy index rises in May

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The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index for May rose slightly from April’s weak reading, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region that includes Iowa.

 

The overall index rose to 49 on a 100-point scale, up from 46 in April.

 

The May overall index for Iowa rose to 52.1 from April’s 45.4. Iowa’s farmland price index for May climbed to 52.3 from April’s 42.1. Iowa’s new-hiring index for May jumped to 62.9 from April’s 55.7.

 

“The stronger U.S. dollar continues to be a drag on the Rural Mainstreet economy. The strong U.S. dollar has made U.S. goods, especially agriculture and energy products, less competitively priced abroad. This has dampened farm income and the Rural Mainstreet economy,” said Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

 

The farmland and ranch land price index for May climbed to 39.7 from April’s 33.4, but was below growth-neutral for the 18th straight month. The May farm equipment sales index fell to a record low of 12.5 from 15.6 in April.

 

Despite weaker crop prices and pullbacks from businesses with close ties to agriculture and energy, Rural Mainstreet businesses continue to add workers to their payrolls. The May hiring index rocketed to 61.5 from April’s much lower, but solid, 54.2. “Rural Mainstreet businesses continue to hire additional workers. While the rate of new hiring is healthier in urban areas of each state, Rural Mainstreet communities are growing jobs at a solid, but slower pace,” said Goss.

 

The confidence index, which reflects expectations for the economy six months out, sank to 41.5 from 47.0 in April. “The impact of the avian flu had a clear and negative impact on the outlook of bankers in the region,” said Goss.

 

The May home sales index jumped to 66.0 from April’s 58.2. The May retail sales index increased to a weak 49.0 from 44.0 in April. “We have yet to measure any upturn in retail sales stemming from the downturn in fuel prices,” said Goss.