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New CBO estimate: Debt nearly twice GDP by 2035

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New figures released this morning by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) show the nation’s debt rising to 190 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035.

The annual long-term budget outlook forecasts a surge in public debt this year that will rise to 70 percent of GDP by the end of fiscal 2011, compared with 62 percent at the end of 2010.

The CBO offers two forecasts, both of which show the nation’s finances deteriorating during the next quarter-century.

In one scenario, considered the more likely of the two, the Bush tax rates are continued, as are rising Medicare payments to doctors. Under that scenario, federal debt reaches 109 percent of GDP by 2023 and would approach 190 percent in 2035.

In the other scenario, in which the Bush tax rates expire and Medicare payments are slashed, total federal debt held by the public would grow from an estimated 69 percent of GDP this year to 84 percent by 2035.

The dismal numbers come as Vice President Joe Biden leads negotiators in the House and Senate trying to work out a deal that would raise the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling while cutting deficits. Lawmakers face an Aug. 2 deadline to reach a deal.

Republicans have resisted including any tax increases as part of a deal, while Democrats have resisted significant changes to entitlement benefits.

Leading economists have warned that when debt exceeds 90 percent of GDP, a country is entering the danger zone for a debt crisis where creditors start to panic.