A labor economist projects that the United States will have more jobs than people to fill them by 2018.

Assuming a return to healthy economic growth and no change in immigration or labor force participation rates, Barry Bluestone, dean of the School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University, predicts that within the next eight years there could be at least 5 million potential job vacancies in the United States, with nearly half of them in social sector jobs in education, health care, government and nonprofit organizations.

The loss in total output could limit the growth of needed services and cost the economy as much as $3 trillion over the five-year period beginning in 2018.

“If the baby boom generation retires from the labor force at the same rate and age as current older workers, the baby bust generation that follows will likely be too small to fill many of the projected new jobs,” according to Bluestone’s report, “After the Recovery: Help Needed – The Coming Labor Shortage and How People in Encore Careers Can Help Solve It.”

Bluestone’s research is one of four papers written by independent experts and released today by MetLife Foundation and Civic Ventures, a think tank on Baby Boomers, work and social purpose.

All four papers, which can be found at www.encore.org/research, assert that engaging workers over 55 in encore careers will be vital to meeting workforce shortages and critical social needs.

The three papers suggest that those over 55 have the skills and experience to help solve serious problems and to bridge critical labor gaps in education, health care and the green economy.