The scientific panel seen as a leading authority on climate change predicts clear damage from climate change by 2040, including the near disappearance of coral reefs — unless we make unprecedented changes to slow emissions of heat-trapping gases, the New York Times reported.

The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released the report today. The projections were part of the Paris agreement, the 2015 pact by nations to fight global warming. President Donald Trump last year announced the United States would withdraw from the accord, over fears that the terms would harm the U.S. economy.

Climate change used to be seen as something that would happen far into the future, and there still are some who want to argue whether it is happening. But the scientific consensus is that it already is happening, and the projections for trouble keep moving earlier. In addition, the U.N. report says the world has 12 years to make the changes necessary to avoid the worst of the projected warming — perhaps by taxing carbon emissions and accelerating the trend away from energy production with fossil fuels. 

Often the discussions are focused on the heavily developed coasts, which are expected to flood as seas rise. But there are effects in the Midwest, too, from less-frequent but bigger rains to changes in nighttime temperatures that could have crop-yield ramifications. 

Emeritus agronomy professor Gene Takle, who won a share of a Nobel Prize for his regional climate modeling work at Iowa State University, laid out the Midwestern ramifications in an interview with the Business Record late last year. And he and another important climate researcher in Iowa, Jerald Schnoor of the University of Iowa, wrote in an op-ed in the Des Moines Register about the “sobering” outlook and ways people could adapt to the changing climate. 

In an interview this morning, Takle said the new report predicts further warming in the Gulf of Mexico, which is responsible for the heavier spring rains in Iowa. The added moisture leads to more evaporation; a river of moisture a mile above the ground carries the moisture to Iowa.

“Farmers have had a lot of trouble planting” crops, Takle said. 

Other parts of the projections may contribute to an opposite trend that has seen less rain in the fall, which has helped harvest, he added. 

And the report seems to suggest a continuation of the other big climate change trend in the Midwest — warmer winters. (Editor’s note: You’ll still need a coat, so don’t get too excited.)

The New York Times also offered an interactive graphic that shows the difference in the changes based on even a slightly larger increase in temperatures, based on the new U.N. report. 

The report “is quite a shock, and quite concerning,” Bill Hare, an author of previous IPCC reports and a physicist with Climate Analytics, a nonprofit organization, told the Times. “We were not aware of this just a few years ago.”