Two months ago, as gasoline prices skyrocketed and homeowners were warned of high winter heating bills, many Greater Des Moines retailers grew concerned that a forced change in consumers’ spending habits would affect their critical holiday shopping season.

“Right after those hurricanes when gas was $3 a gallon, that definitely was scary,” said Dave Larson, manager of the Woodsmith Store in Clive.

But as gas prices continue to drop and homeowners have had time to budget for winter heating bills, those same retailers have become cautiously optimistic about the final two months of 2005.

“People will get through it,” said Victoria Veiock, owner of Wicker and the Works in Valley Junction. “They may have to cut corners. I just don’t think the holidays are where they’re going to cut.”

Early projections for holiday sales, which account for 25 to 40 percent of the year’s profits for many stores, were not good news for retailers. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita drove up gas prices with little indication that relief was in sight. Retail sales were down by 0.3 percent in August following a 0.8 percent gain in July, the U.S. Commerce Department reported. Consumer confidence fell to a two-year low in October, and some industry experts have predicted consumers will spend less due to an increased amount of charitable giving.

The most recent economic figures, however, may shine a brighter light on the situation. Consumer spending was up 0.5 percent in September, accompanied by a 1.7 percent gain in personal income for the month, according to a Commerce Department report.

Rocell Viniard, senior marketing manager of Jordan Creek Town Center, draws much of her holiday optimism from a nationwide survey of 17,000 consumers conducted by the mall’s developer, General Growth Properties Inc. Ninety-one percent of survey respondents said they plan to spend as much on holiday gifts this year as they did in 2004, and some even plan to spend more.

Viniard also suspects that some consumers may forgo holiday travel due to high fuel costs and put money they would have spent on travel expenses toward gifts.

Kathy Dunbar, owner of Kathy’s Fashions in Windsor Heights and Blue Willi’s by Kathy at Jordan Creek Town Center, said a recent drop in gas prices have been accompanied by what she said is an “upward trend” in the apparel business.

“I do think it’s going to be a good Christmas,” she said. “I wouldn’t say great. Among the customers, retailers and wholesalers, it’s all pretty positive. But it’s not like we’re going to set the place on fire.”

At Wicker and the Works, Veiock has weathered floods, tornadoes and numerous economic downturns in her 27 years in business. A hike in gasoline prices won’t slow her down, she said.

“I bought (merchandise for the holiday season) like it was going to be OK,” she said, adding that any concern she had about the holiday season was far greater six to eight weeks ago.

Still, Kate Shaw, owner of Porch Light Antiques in Valley Junction, believes sales will fall short of those from the past two holiday seasons due to what she said has been a recent downturn in retail sales. She, too, attributes any drop to high fuel and heating costs.

“Perhaps people are planning ahead and not spending as much in anticipation,” she said.

With that mix of expectation among retailers, some store owners and managers are taking a new look at their approach to the shopping season.

At the Woodsmith Store, where the holiday season brings in about 20 percent of yearly sales, marketing manager John Siberell said his store and others nationwide have been forced to advertise earlier than in recent years, encouraging customers to shop and buy early in the season. The Learning Post Ltd. sent store coupons out earlier than in previous years to get customers to think about buying early, said co-owner and general manager Monti Miller.

“Other businesses are advertising Christmas before Halloween,” Siberell said. “Stuff comes in the mail and everybody bemoans it. But with the frustration of gasoline and heating bills, the retailers are trying to get a jump early before people see the first heating bill.”

Early advertising has forced stores to think earlier about inventory as well. Larson said the Woodsmith Store has been mostly promoting tool accessories with price points that make them suitable holiday gifts. Miller said his stock of merchandise is closer now to its Christmas level than what has been typical for early November. But people are buying earlier as well, he said.

Wicker and the Works is “Christmas-ed out,” Veiock said, as holiday items have been on the shelves for weeks, and some lines of merchandise have already sold out. When the business opened, she didn’t get into Christmas until after Thanksgiving. Not anymore. She now has customers who call in early October wondering if her Christmas merchandise is in stock.

At Jordan Creek Town Center, Viniard said Bath & Body Works, Younkers and Scheels All Sports are among some stores that, between merchandise and store decorations, are decked out for the holidays. The sooner people start to think about Christmas, the sooner they’ll start buying.

Market research firm NPD Group Inc. predicted last month that many retailers would offer major discounts during the holiday season to encourage spending, but most retailers in Greater Des Moines don’t appear to be jumping on that bandwagon and say they don’t have plans to do so.

However, Dunbar said she has been all but forced in recent years into sale-pricing some of her merchandise before Christmas rather than waiting until the traditional post-holiday sales period. She calls that a byproduct of department stores routinely offering discounts in the weeks leading up to Christmas to encourage spending, which forces her to follow suit in order to remain competitive.

New promotions have emerged as well to encourage people to shop and spend. The Woodsmith Store sent a direct-mail piece inviting customers into the store to enter a drawing for a gift card. Jordan Creek Town Center will offer a special gift with any purchase the day after Thanksgiving, and will station “gift experts” throughout the mall during the season. After a strong holiday season during Jordan Creek’s first year, Viniard believes mall-wide sales will see a boost from several new tenants, including Banana Republic and Gap.

Amid this recent emergence of optimism and efforts to encourage big spending, many retailers still shrug their shoulders when estimating how they will ultimately fare. But they still hang their hopes on the assumption that millions of Americans will spend hundreds if not thousands of dollars on Christmas gifts this year, as they do every year.

“It’s pretty hard for people not to buy at Christmastime,” the Woodsmith Store’s Larson said. “It always seems to turn out OK.”