Rural mainstreet index reaches highest level in 15 months

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Iowa’s rural mainstreet index for November remained below growth neutral for a 15th straight month but improved to 49.6 from October’s 37.1.

The state’s farmland price index rose to 41.1 from 38.6 in October, but the new hiring index fell to 49.3 from 52.4.

Regional exports of agricultural goods and livestock for 2024 year to date dropped to $1.1 billion from $1.2 billion from the same period in 2023, or a 2.3% reduction, according to trade data from the International Trade Association.

The 10-state region’s overall reading rose above growth neutral for the first time since July 2023, improving to 50.2 from October’s 35.2. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Yields have been healthy across the region and have offset some of the weakness in farm commodity prices,” Ernie Goss, Creighton University’s chair in regional economics, said in a prepared statement. “Likewise, lower fuel costs and lower short-term interest boosted the modest improvement in farm conditions for the month. Even so, more than eight of 10 bankers see lower ag commodity prices as the greatest threat to the farmer.”

The region’s farmland price index increased to 44.4 in November from 38.5, but farmland prices sank for the sixth time in the past seven months. “Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below break-even grain prices, have significantly reduced farmer demand for ag land,” Goss said.

The farm equipment sales index slumped from 18.8 to 14.6, its lowest level since October 2016. “This is the 16th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak farmer commodity prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss said.

Other regional findings from the report include:

  • The loan volume index declined to 58.9 from 73.1; the checking deposit index fell to 59.3 from 63.7; and the index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments sank to 53.7 from 63.5.
  • The new hiring index remained at 50.0.
  • The November confidence index increased to 46.4, the highest level since March 2022, and up from 29.6 in October. “Weak agriculture commodity prices and negative farm cash flow, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to place banker confidence below growth neutral,” Goss said.
  • The home sales index dropped to 42.6 from 46.3.
  • The retail sales index increased to 42.0 from 36.0.