Small-business optimism at 15-year high; taxes remain key issue

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Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index, with an overall index score of 129. That is 11 points higher than last quarter’s score of 118 and the highest in the survey’s 15-year history. The fourth quarter 2018 survey was conducted Nov. 8-14, immediately following the midterm elections.

Survey respondents said positive business financials drove the record high. Eighty percent of respondents rated their financial situation as very good or somewhat good, and 84 percent said they expect their financial situation to be very good or somewhat good over the next year. 

A record 55 percent of business owners reported increases in revenue, with 62 percent estimating revenue increases in the next year. In addition, 74 percent said they had good cash flow in the past 12 months, and 78 percent said they expect their businesses to have good cash flow over the next year.

“As we head into the end of 2018, small businesses are continuing to indicate that they are thriving and hopeful for the future,” said Andy Rowe, Wells Fargo head of customer segments. “With owner optimism hitting its highest level in the 15 years Wells Fargo has been conducting this survey, we are excited to see what this will mean for their continued capital investment and growth.”

The survey also looked at what priorities business owners see as paramount for the incoming U.S. Congress, including several questions asked in the fourth quarter of 2016 following the last national election.

When asked to forecast their operating environment in the coming year, 35 percent said it will be better (down 10 percent from 2016) and 55 percent forecasted no change (43 percent in 2016); 10 percent said it would get worse (11 percent in 2016). 

In April 2018, the Small Business Index survey included a question about owners’ views of the recent tax reform, and 39 percent said they didn’t know how the tax bill would affect their businesses; 27 percent did not expect it to benefit them. 

Seven months later, taxes continue to be a key issue among small business owners. When asked to list the most important issue they would like to see addressed by the new Congress, 29 percent highlighted taxes as the top issue, with 12 percent listing healthcare and 11 percent saying government regulation. When asked what congressional actions will be most important for their businesses, 74 percent said actions relating to tax codes and regulations, while 61 percent said overall small business regulation and 60 percent said actions related to healthcare.

“With the increases we’ve seen in business owners’ revenues and the high degree of confidence business owners have in their cash flow, it’s not surprising that taxes remain a key issue for them,” said Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo managing director and senior economist. “While the number of business owners that don’t expect changes to their operating environment remains high, most see the current environment as very good and many business owners are looking to expand their business in 2019.”