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Strong dollar the next check on inflation

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The strongest dollar in more than 11 years is coming soon to stores across the United States, Bloomberg reports.

 

The 24 percent surge in the currency since June will take time to gradually ripple through the world’s largest economy, first showing up in lower costs for goods imported by American companies and then in the prices paid by consumers, according to economists at Barclays PLC, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

 

That means the dollar will be the next check on inflation, replacing oil as fuel costs stabilize.

 

“The energy price pass-through should begin to wane by the end of the first quarter,” said Michael Gapen, the chief U.S. economist for Barclays. “The peak drag from the dollar will come in the second and third quarters.”

 

Clothing, electronics and automobiles are among the items that will probably carry smaller price tags as the greenback’s appreciation works its way to store shelves and dealer showrooms. That will give an added boost to household buying power, which is already benefiting from the lowest gasoline prices in six years and larger job gains.

 

“You can’t expect a better environment for consumers,” said Gregory Daco, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. Combined with cheaper fuel, “the stronger dollar is an additional layer of downward pressure on inflation.”

 

The cost of imported goods and services has dropped for seven straight months, the longest such stretch during an economic expansion since 1998, mainly caused by the plunge in energy costs, according to U.S. Labor Department data.