Sustainable recovery relies on small businesses

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Small businesses are becoming the Achilles heel of the U.S. recovery by limiting growth and job creation, according to Bloomberg News.

Companies with fewer than 500 employees helped lead the economy out of the four recessions since 1980. This time, they continue to cut capital spending and dismiss workers, eliminating 3,000 jobs in January, according to Roseland, N.J.-based Automatic Data Processing Inc., the world’s largest payroll processor.

“Will you have a sustainable recovery a few years down the road without getting some small-business spending? No,” Cary Leahey, senior managing director at Decision Economics Inc. in New York and a former White House economist, told Bloomberg News.

The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks has risen 4 percent in the past six months, lagging behind a 6 percent increase in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. Coming out of previous recessions, shares of companies with market capitalization between $250 million and $1 billion generally led markets higher, Bloomberg News said.

The Russell 2000 gained 17 percent in the six months following the end of the 2001 recession, compared with 0.2 percent for the S&P 500, Bloomberg News reported.

The U.S. economy expanded at a 5.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace in six years, after a 2.2 percent increase in the third quarter. That increase was buoyed partly by capital expenditures for equipment and software by large companies such as Texas Instruments Inc. Growth may be difficult to sustain if smaller firms continue to pare spending and staff.

“It suggests that a V-shaped economic rebound is even more unlikely than suggested by many standard economic indicators,” said Andrew Tilton, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which sees gross domestic product growing 2.3 percent this year.

The National Federation of Independent Business’s index of small-business optimism has been near historic lows for 15 consecutive months, declining to 88 in December from 88.3 in November, the federation reported Jan. 12. During the four prior recessions, it dipped below 90 only once.