Iowa’s Republican presidential caucuses are different this year. 

The most obvious change is the number of candidates: 17 at one point, too many to fit on one stage, but that’s not the most relevant difference.   

“What’s really different this year is the outsiders,” said Doug Gross, a Des Moines lawyer and Republican strategist who’s been on the sidelines so far. 

“Right now you have complete outsiders dominating the race,” he said. “You have Ben Carson with no political experience at all and Donald Trump with toxic political experience.”

Also, Gross said, “the level of organization these candidates have done is less than I’ve seen in other years.” 

“The race to some extent has been nationalized by the debates,” he said. “Iowa is simply a stage where a national play is being conducted. They’re not here talking about Iowa issues at all, where historically they would have to.”

Nor are most candidates spending time with small groups in living rooms and coffee shops.

One candidate who is running a more traditional campaign is Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, and so far he’s gotten no traction at all in the polls. A mid-October Iowa Poll had Jindal at 2 percent. 

If Iowa had a primary, such a low-single-digit reading would be cause for serious concern. But turnout is much lower for caucuses, and if Jindal can get 2 percent of registered Republicans on caucus night, it would amount to roughly 12,200 people, or a solid 10 percent of a typical Republican caucus turnout. That would be huge in this crowded field.

If past is prologue, Gross said, Jindal should do well.

“But right now, if I had to predict who would win Iowa, it would be Ted Cruz,” Gross said. 

“He’s waiting in the wings for people to start thinking with their heads and not other parts of their anatomy. And when they do, they will fall away from Trump and Carson, because they just don’t see them as president,” he said.

“Cruz has been working the pastor/Christian network and the Tea Party movement. If he picks up enough of the Christian conservatives and the Tea Party, he can win a relatively convincing victory.

“I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t win,” Gross said. 

“I don’t think that’s good for Iowa, because he could never be president,” he continued. “He doesn’t have the temperament. This guy wants to burn Washington down. To win, we need someone who is reform-minded, not someone who is a revolutionary.” 

While Cruz, Trump and Carson battle former Iowa caucus winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum for the Christian, ultra-right wing of the Iowa Republican Party, candidates Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich and Marco Rubio will divide up the GOP establishment wing, Gross said.

“Bush has already tried to use his family network to gin up organizational support, but that didn’t work,” Gross added. 

“So, now he’s going to try a war of attrition.

“Just watch,” he predicted, “there will be a carpet bombing in the next two months in Iowa from Bush’s Right to Rise Super PAC.”

The target will be Rubio. 

“Rubio is a big threat to Bush,” Gross said. “Rubio is an immensely talented political figure. He comes from a new generation, and the election is usually about the future and not the past.

“A lot of Republicans, including myself, are interested in being able to cut a contrast with Hillary Clinton with someone who is young and next generation, not the last generation. 

“But,” Gross added, “Rubio has not been tested.” 

“Bush is going to bomb the guy,” he said. 

“We’ll see how well he stands it.”