Two cheers, at least, for the economy
The Iowa and Midwest economies ought to be blushing today, given positive outlooks from separate surveys of supply managers and business leaders.
The Business Conditions Index for the Mid-America region soared in February to its highest level since April 2007, pointing to improving economic growth in the months ahead, according to a survey released today by Creighton University.
The index, a leading economic indicator from a survey of supply managers in a nine-state area including Iowa, rose for a third straight month to 61, up from 54.7 in January and 50.3 in December. Job gains were reported for two straight months for the first time since July 2007, IowaPolitics.com reported.
“Readings over the past several months indicate that the regional economic rebound that is under way will pick up steam in the months ahead,” said Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss. “Even so, I am concerned that the economic problems in Europe, which are pushing the value of the dollar higher, will negatively influence regional growth.”
Iowa’s Business Conditions Index rose above the growth-neutral level for the fifth time in the past seven months. The index, a leading economic indicator from a survey of supply managers, jumped to 58.2 from January’s 52.1. A reading above 50 represents growth.
“Over the past year, Iowa has lost more than 17,000 manufacturing jobs, or more than 8 percent of its manufacturing job base,” Goss said. “Almost 90 percent of the producer job losses were in durable goods manufacturing. Based on our surveys, I expect no more manufacturing job losses, and minimal overall job gains for the state in the second quarter of 2010.”
In a separate survey, 80 percent of the leaders of the Iowa’s 20 largest companies predicted steady or increased business activity over the next six months.
Their predictions of increased sales, capital spending and employment through the first half of the year boosted the Iowa Business Council’s Overall Economic Outlook Survey index to 54.3, its first time in positive territory since the third quarter of 2008, the council said today in a news release.
“The survey results are encouraging. We are beginning to see a broader base of confidence amongst Iowa’s largest employers,” Tom Aller, president of Interstate Power & Light Co., an Alliant Energy Corp. subsidiary, and chair of the Iowa Business Council, said in the release. “Most certainly, issues remain about the strength of a recovery. … If policymakers can avoid doing harm to Iowa’s business environment during this fragile time of economic recovery, it’s possible that 2010 will be a significant turning point for commerce in our state.”