Weaker performances in farmland prices, hiring slow rural Iowa economic growth in February

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Iowa’s rural economy expanded at a slower pace in February behind weaker performances in farmland prices and hiring, according to a monthly survey of rural bankers.

Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index for Iowa slumped to 62, down from 71.8 in January.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally and energy-dependent states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index ranges from zero to 100 with a score of 50 representing neutral growth.

In Iowa, the farmland price index fell to 79.8 in February, down from 89.4 in January. The state’s new-hiring index slipped slightly to 62.7 from 62.8.

For the 10-state region covered by the survey, the overall index score rose slightly to 61.5, from 61.1 in January. It was the 15th consecutive month the index remained above growth-neutral.

“Strong grain prices, the Federal Reserve’s record low short-term interest rates, and growing agricultural exports have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy,” Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University, said in the report, released on Feb. 17.

Despite the overall index remaining strong, the confidence index declined to 51.9, down from a stronger 61.1 in January. The decline followed two straight months of increases in confidence.

The region’s farmland price index declined to 78.8, down nearly 10 points from January, and down from the record high of 90 in December.

Bankers were asked to project corn and soybean prices for the next six months. Bank CEOs indicated that they expect corn prices to fall by 2.6% and soybean prices to drop 2.3% during the next six months.

The farm equipment sales index slipped slightly to 72 in February, from 72.4 in January.

According to the survey, the February loan volume index increased to 40.4. While it remained below growth-neutral, it was a significant increase from 28.8 in January.

Bank CEOs also indicated that they expect the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates by 1 percentage point this year.

The survey also showed that labor shortages continue to constrain growth for rural businesses. The new-hiring index remained above growth-neutral in February, but increased only slightly to 61.5, from 61.1 in January.

The home sales index declined to 63.5, from 65.4 the previous month, while the retail sales index rose slightly to 57.7, up 0.3 points from January.

“Healthy farm commodity prices and federal stimulus spending are having positive impacts on Rural Mainstreet retail sales and home sales,” Goss said.